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European Elections 2019

Ireland South Constituency  European Election

Deirdre Clune (nee Barry) Has lost her European Seat. The sitting MEP will not be present when the newly elected EU Parliament convenes. She will only join the European Parliament if and when the United Kindom leaves the EU. RTE continually streamed that Grace O’Sullivan and Deirdre Clune had been elected. This is grossly misleading.

https://wp.me/pKzXa-1iu

Desperate attempts were made by Fine Gael HQ to ensure the election of sitting MEP Deirdre Clune in the final days of the election. This included assigning the Fine Gael vote in Counties Tipperary and Limerick exclusively to Deirdre Clune.  But these attempts have failed

——————————————————————————–                                                            Further Desperate Attempt to Save FG Euro Seat of Deirdre Clune(nee Barry)       The Other Two FG Candidates, Sean Kelly MEP (Kerry) and Andrew Doyle TD (Wicklow) have been Banned from Limerick and Tipperary By Director of Elections. But Doyle Refuses to Obey.  https://wp.me/pKzXa-1iu

FG Bid to save 2 Seats in Ireland South
Daniel McConnell  
Political Editor, Irish Examiner Wednesday, May 22,

Fine Gael is deeply divided after it was forced to “revise” its division of the Ireland South constituency in order to bolster MEP Deirdre Clune’s flagging campaign, just 48 hours before polling.

Letters issued in parts of the vast constituency by Director of Elections Regina Doherty have called on voters in Limerick and Tipperary to give Ms Clune their number 1 votes in order to ensure Fine Gael keeps its two seats in the European Parliament.

Ms Doherty’s letter called on voters in the city to vote for Ms Clune ahead of her party colleagues Sean Kelly, who is all but assured of a seat and junior agriculture minister Andrew Doyle, who is seen as a sweeper in Leinster.0 But Mr Doyle and his camp are furious at the diktat, which they say was issued “without any consultation.”

Pat Deering, TD for Carlow-Kilkenny, and Mr Doyle’s campaign manager told the Irish Examiner that the team is “very disappointed” with the letter issued by Ms Doherty, which was done as part of a protectionist policy to benefit the two sitting MEPs.

“If they wanted to protect the two candidates, then why run three. This is very disappointing, we were not consulted and I tell you what, we will be going into Tipperary and Limerick tomorrow,” he said.

 

 

—————————————————————-May 19   Deirdre Clune (nee Barry) FG MEP  Down to 7% in Red C Poll-Mick Wallace on 8%,  O’Sullivan Green also on 8% !!!

https://wp.me/pKzXa-1iu

Desperate Attempt to save seat of Deirdre Clune (nee Barry) FG MEP Continues but seems to be failing. Two other FG Candidates were Banned from FG’s Cork  Euro Hustings. Last Week MRBI Irish Times Ireland South Poll FG Candidates:  Kelly 18%, Clune 10%, Doyle 9%

Irish Examiner Tuesday, May 14, 2019  https://wp.me/pKzXa-1iu

Fine Gael has banned a second party candidate from taking part in the Irish Examiner European election debate in Cork amid fears that their involvement could damage sitting MEP Deirdre Clune’s re-election chances. Kerry-based MEP Sean Kelly confirmed that he has been told not to attend the public meeting.Last weekend, Wicklow-based Andrew Doyle said he had been barred from taking part in the event.

——————————————————————————-Wicklow FG Candidate Excluded From FG Cork Euro Launch in Desperate Bid To Save the Seat Of Cork’s Deirdre Clune (nee Barry) MEP

Irish Examiner   Saturday, May 11, 2019 – 06:45 AM  https://wp.me/pKzXa-1iu

A major row has erupted within Fine Gael after junior minister Andrew Doyle was ordered not to attend a hustings event next week, after previously being told he could go.

Mr Doyle, a Wicklow-based TD and junior agriculture minister, and his campaign director Pat Deering, TD for Carlow- Kilkenny, have hit out at Justice Minister Charlie Flanagan, who has issued an order that he does not appear at the Irish Examiner event in Cork next Thursday night.

Treat Irish Times MRBI Euro-Poll with Caution!

Ireland South    https://wp.me/pKzXa-1iu

Infamously, Conor Cruise O’Brien commented on the transfer of a number of votes from a H-block hunger striker to Minister Paddy Cooney (FG), scourge of the IRA. Conor thought it was an example of the insanity/irrationality of the mere Irish. It would not have occurred to CCO’B that there was method in the “madness” of the supporters of the hunger striker. As there was no republican candidate to whom votes could be transferred you might as well keep a minister in your own area. Why? To ensure that the area would not be overlooked in the matters of public services, capital investment, location of multi-national companies etc. Clientelism is a huge factor in Irish electoral politics and PR enables strategic voting to take that factor into account.

Ireland South   (4 or 5 seats):

Kelly* (FG) 18  Kerry
Ní Ríada* (SF) 14  Cork
Kelleher (FF) 13     Cork
Clune* (FG) 10   Cork
Byrne (FF) 10  Wexford
Doyle (FG) 9  Wicklow
Wallace (I4C) 8  WexFord
Nunan (Lab) 5  Dublin (Kerry Background)
O’Sullivan (GP) 5     Waterford-Tramore
Gardner (Ind) 2  Kilkenny

No candidate from Limerick or Clare or Laois or Offally

No candidate above 1 % in Tipperary or Carlow

others all 1% or lower

https://www.laoistoday.ie/2019/04/16/confirmed-the-full-list-of-european-election-candidates-in-the-ireland-south-area/     and their places of residence

Earlier on CLR I said: Treat Irish Times Euro-Poll with Caution
1. low 500 sample   MOE 4.4 %
2. Poll for Persons not parties -favours high name recognition candidates-discriminates more than normal party polls against pocketed(localised) and therefore independent candidates
3. 12% + or – 4.4% for a candidate is much more uncertain for example than FF 25% + or – 3.3% in a party poll

Fine Gael Total       18+10+9= 37%

Does this mean that FG are on 37%? NO!

Sean Kelly on  18% is certain to be elected. There is no other KERRY CANDIDATE! Many Kerry supporters of  FF and  Other Parties will vote for Kelly to ensure that Kerry’s interests are “looked after”. There is no candidate at all from Limerick or Clare! These counties are politically closer to Kerry rather than to Munster rivals Cork. Many Limerick and Clare supporters of FF and other parties will vote for Kelly. Limerick and Clare Fine Gael supporters are much more likely to vote for Kelly than for Cork’s Deirdre Clune or Wicklow’s Andy Doyle! I wouldn’t be surprised if he secured  more votes than the 18% he got in the MRBI POLL.  The downside of this is that if he gets a surplus there will be significant leakage to other parties on its distribution!

Minister of State, Andy Doyle (FG) is the only Wicklow candidate. As such his 9% in the poll may be carrying many non-Fine Gael  Eastern regional votes. Although Deirdre Clune (nee Barry) is only on 10%, it is likely that she will be ahead of Doyle on late counts as County Cork has a very large population and there are many minor Cork-based candidates to be eliminated.  But it remains to be seen whether the leakage from Kelly’s Surplus Distribution  and Doyle’s transfers ensures she is not elected particularly in a 4 seats only scenario. On the other hand, her lack of name recognition across the 12 counties and consequent pocketing of her vote in Cork City and County, may mean that the 10% she has received in the MRBI Poll underestimates her actual support. She should definitely be elected in a 5 seat scenario.

 

 

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