Archive for April, 2019

Nationalists To Become Majority in Six Counties-Shifting Demographics

April 30, 2019 Leave a comment

See Full ARTICLE  Further Down: ‘Catholic majority possible’ in NI by 2021—-BBC NI


Belfast Irish News 30 April, 2019
“THE religious divide in schools in NI is at its widest ever with the number of Catholic children at an all all-time high.
Official government figures also reveal the percentage of pupils who identify as Protestant is plummeting. There are now more Catholic children at nursery, primary, secondary, grammar and special schools.On school census day this year there were 175,617 Catholic pupils – 50.7 per cent of all enrolments. It is the first time this figure has topped 175,000. There were 114,314 Protestant children – 33 per cent – while 56,408 identified as `other’.”-Irish News

William Considine on Facebook;  In NI, religion is more than religion. These figures show how the plantation of Ulster is unraveling.

Jim O’Donnell on FB;

Will this be basis for the New Republic?
Paddy Healy; William Considine is correct. Religion and even religious background in the six counties is a badge of ethnicity and political allegiance. The British maintained the Protestant/Unionists as an upper caste to control that part of the empire for them and to prevent the emergence of a strong united Ireland next door.. To do this under the cloak of democracy the upper caste had to be a local majority. That is why 3 Ulster counties were excluded from “Northern Ireland” in the Treaty Settlement. These school going figures are regarded as extremely serious by the ruling elites in UK and the 26-counties. In an Irish Times article which called for a”calm debate” some years ago, it also pointed out:”In total, therefore in 2010, at third level there are 20,995 students (59.3 per cent) from a Catholic background and 14,410 (40.7 per cent) from a Protestant background. This is in addition to the figures above. Nationalists/Catholics are in a majority in Queens and New University of Ulster. Many Unionist/Protestant 3rd level students are studying in Scotland and UK. A significant portion are not returning. Jim O’Donnell asks “will this be the basis for a United Ireland?” For to-day, i will just comment that it was the mainly Catholic Irish Rich who crushed the risen people in the civil war!

‘Catholic majority possible’ in NI by 2021—-BBC

“The difference is even more marked among schoolchildren with 51% Catholic, 37% Protestant.

Only among the over 60s is there a majority of Protestants with 57%, compared to Catholics on 35%.”


By Gareth GordonBBC News NI Political Correspondent, 19 April 2018 Demographics are shifting in Northern Ireland

It is likely Catholics will outnumber Protestants by 2021 in Northern Ireland, according to a leading academic.

Dr Paul Nolan, who specialises in monitoring the peace process and social trends, told BBC News NI that there could be more Catholics than Protestants in Northern Ireland by the centenary of the foundation of the state.

However, he says unionists should not be too alarmed because you cannot necessarily equate being a Catholic with supporting a united Ireland.

nsus figures in 2011 showed a narrowing gap in the population

The last census in 2011 put the Protestant population at 48%, just 3% more than Catholics at 45%.

More recent figures from 2016 show that among those of working age 44% are now Catholic and 40% Protestant.

Figures from 2016 of working age population

The difference is even more marked among schoolchildren with 51% Catholic, 37% Protestant.

Only among the over 60s is there a majority of Protestants with 57%, compared to Catholics on 35%.

Dr Nolan said: “Three years from now we will end up, I think, in the ironic situation on the centenary of the state where we actually have a state that has a Catholic majority.”


Looking at the last census in 2011, Mr Nolan points out although 45% identified as being from a Catholic background, only 25% claimed an exclusively Irish identity.

Image captionFigures among school-age children are more clear

He said: “The future of unionism depends entirely upon one thing – and I mean unionism with a small ‘u’ – it depends on winning the support of people who do not regard themselves to be unionists with a capital ‘U’.

“In other words people who do not identify with the traditional trappings of unionism; people who would give their support for a UK government framework and that’s a sizeable proportion of Catholics provided they are not alienated by any form of triumphalism or anything that seems to be a rejection of their cultural identity as nationalists.”

What’s next?

It is likely there will be “more examination of what a United Ireland might mean,” according to Dr Nolan.

“Does it mean one parliament in Dublin or two parliaments? One in Belfast and one in Dublin?

“I think the more that gets unpacked, the more opinion will move back and forward. Its not going to go just in one direction.

Dr Nolan warns not to rely too heavily on polls for an indication on support for a united Ireland

Dismissing opinion polls declaring support for a united Ireland, Dr Nolan says the polls ask the wrong question.

“If we got to the situation where people go into a polling booth and have to put the mark against a united Ireland, it’s very hard for anyone to predict it. Just ask Hillary Clinton, ask David Cameron, ask Theresa May: were they right to put their faith in the opinion polls? I don’t think so.”

Meanwhile the Sinn Féin President Mary Lou McDonald responded to the DUP leader Arlene Foster saying she would “probably” leave in the event of a united Ireland.

Ms McDonald told BBC News NI: “Of course unionists have to be at home in a new Ireland. It has to be as much a home for Arlene Foster and her family as for mine.

“So, yes, let’s have the discussion.

“As far as I’m concerned nothing is taboo. Let’s talk about the flag, let’s talk about the anthem, let’s talk about every nuance and every aspect of Irish life north and south.”

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