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IRISH OPINION POLL ANALYSIS

See Below—Little Change in B& A Core Vote since September

October-LABOUR DISASTER CONTINUES IN B&A POLL 

B&A Poll              May         Jun          September October
Lab %                 4%          5%              5%              4%
Sinn Fein           19%        19%           18%            18%

“Mussolini” “Pay and Pension Cut” Howlin , Burton (“Scourge of Women”), Alan (“Water Charges”) Kelly   MUST RESIGN NOW

Jack O’Connor  SIPTU is RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS DEBACLE-HE BACKED BURTON!!!

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September-FF and FG Poll 60% in IPSOS/MRBI POLL!

THE LEFT and SINN FEIN ARE DOING SOMETHING WRONG!

ALL TALK, NO MASS MOBILISATION!

The parties who, with the assistance of Labour, not only cheered on the disastrous fake capitalist boom, implemented austerity, but also , over decades, implemented an economic policy which has now left the country completely powerless and at the mercy of multi-nationals, international financiers, and the leaders of the US and EU political blocks are receiving 60% of the votes!

I can’t find core vote anywhere so that valid comparisons with B&A can be made.
The 3% final outcome for the Labour Party(down from 6.6% in GE2016) is really bad news for them. They may not loose all seats as deemed possible by AK as their vote is pocketted into a small numberof constituencies and their sitting TDs are big well known personalities . But the chance of anyof their councillors making the jump into the Dáil are near zero. THE POLL PREDICTS THAT SF WILL GET OVER 6 TIMES The LABOUR VOTE.!!!! In addition, when all respondents(INCLUDING THOSE CHOOSING FF or FG) were asked were they satisfied with the job being done by party leaders, Gerry Adams got 30% and Brendan Howlin 20%. This is despite a sharper campaign than usual in pro-establishment media against Gerry Adams. The same media are protecting “FEMPI” Howlin from the implications of the poll for his leadership.

Slidarity-PBP and left Independent TDs are , if anythig, more pocketed into a small number of constituencies than Labour and the personality factor in many cases is greater. This has only full effect in an actual general election. Respondents in polls can be very confused about the connection between local TDs and small political parties. I will be very surprised if SBP-solidarity TDs and any of the well known left inependents lose their seats.

BUT ALL THAT BEING SAID, THIS AND THE MOST RECENT SERIES OF POLLS , ARE BAD NEWS FOR THE LEFT AND SINN FEIN. I do not include Labour among the left. A line was crossed when Howlin proposed the FEMPi anti trade union law, a measure with which Mussolini would have strongly agreed.
The parties who, with the assistance of Labour, not only cheered on the disatrous fake capitalist boom, but also , over decades, implemented an economic policy which has now left the country completely powerless and at the mercy of muti-nationals, international financiers, and the leaders of th US and EU political blocks are receiving 60% of the votes! DON’T BLAME THE VOTERS————WE ARE DOING SOMETHING WRONG!!! There has been too much electoralism and no mass mobilisation since the end of the Water Charges Campaign.

WHY have Sinn Fein and the left not had a single Mass March in Dublin on the Housing Issue? When we took to the streets with The Dublin Housing Action Committee in the sixties, we hadn’t a single Sinn Féin or left TD. Now we have over 30 but all we get is TALK, TALK, TALK!!!! WAKE UP!

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B&A October Poll—Core Vote

B&A October   2017

ToTAL             FF       FG            Lab           SF            Others      Undecided

Core%                19        23             3              16                 13                26


Assuming Core Vote in MRBI is the Raw Poll Outcome

B&A Poll Sept 17,2017  Margin of Error 3.3%

Total             FF              FG             Lab               SF        Other/GR    Undecided

Core%           18.25          26.0          3.0              15.2               13.4              24.3

 

Ipsos/Mrbi Poll Oct 5, 2017  Margin of Error  2.9%

Total             FF              FG             Lab               SF        Other/GR    Undecided

Core %          22               23               4                15             15                  21

Change in 4 Weeks (Difference between Core Votes) (MRBI  less B&A)

%                +3.75            -3                +1            -0.2          +1.6                  -3.3

Comparing Final Outcomes

MRBI  October

FF              FG             Lab               SF        Other/GR

%     29              31               4                  19             17

B&A    September

        FF              FG             Lab               SF        Other/GR

%      29           29                5                     18         19

Difference    (MRBI  less B&A)

FF              FG             Lab               SF         Other/GR

%  0                  +2              -1                 +1             -2

 

 

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Only Significant Change Is Swing  From FF to FG-All Other Parties Unchanged-Labour Still at 3% in Core Vote

Core Vote

B&A Poll Sept 17, Margin of Error 3.3%,Change Since July

Total             FF              FG             Lab               SF        Other/GR    Undecided

937                171             243            28               142                126               228

Core%            18.25          26.0          3.0              15.2               13.4              24.3

Change %       -3.75           +3.5         +0.3           +0.9                 +0.5            -1.3

 

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JULY  B&A

No Significant Change in  Poll Despite Change of Taoiseach-Labour Back Below 3% in Core Vote Which is Less than One Fifth of Sinn Fein Vote and One Quarter of the OTHERS Vote–UNDECIDED THE BIGGEST CATEGORY IS UP 4.2% Since June

B&A Poll  July  16   Margin of Error     3.3%

Total             FF              FG             Lab               SF        Other/GR    Undecided

923                203             208           25               132                119                236

Core%            22.0            22.5             2.7              14.3              12.9              25.6

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE-But Labour  Creep Just Above 3%

B&A June  6

Parties          FF              FG             Lab             SF               Other/GR     Undecided

Core%          21.9           22.3           3.3               16.2                15.0                   21.4

No Significant Change in  Poll-Labour Drop Below 3% in Core Vote For First Time This Year

B&A Poll   May  14    Margin of Error        c.  3%

B&A Poll May

Total          FF         FG                   Lab                     SF             other/GR               Undecided

921             200      206                  27                   137                  143                    208

Core            21.7     22.4               2.9                    14.9                15.5                    22.6

B&A Poll April

Total           FF         FG           Lab               SF          Other/GR       undecided

971             207         201        33                 157          138              235

Core          21.3        20.7      3.4                 16.2        14.2              24.2

 

May 14, 2017-Based on a 3 month Rolling Average of B&A figures

Since General Election 2016,   FF up 3.6%,   FG  up 1%, Labour down 2.5%, Sinn Féin up 8.2%, Others  down  10.4%

Drop in others is misleading. In an actual election, unlike in an opinion poll, there are many local and minority candidates who are not in serious contention. These are eliminated in early counts. The figure for others should only be compared with that in opinion polls 

Behaviour and Attitudes provides the actual polling figures in its tables including undecideds unlike some other polling companies. The core vote provided by RED C,for example, excludes the most disenchanted and the most devious among those interviewed. Note: Unlike Red C, B&A gives the actual unprocessed figures as a core vote Red C discards all those who say on a scale of 1 to 10 that their likelihood to vote is less than 8. Consequently undecideds in Red C  “core vote” are typically  12%. Undecideds in B&A core vote are typically greater than 20%

 

B&A makes a number of adjustments in addition to eliminating undecideds to reach a final poll figure for each party. I believe that these adjustments may not be appropriate in a rapidly changing and confusing political situation. I have therefore taken the raw polling figures(core) and simply eliminated the undecideds.

A poll of around 1000 people has a margin of error of 3% for 95% certainty. This means that a particular poll may have a bigger margin of error than 3%. It may be an “outlier”

Accordingly I will be doing a 3 month rolling average. Such an approach will fail to detect sharp changes. On the other hand, it will reduce the effect of “outliers” which can mislead. The single unadjusted monthly core vote may capture sharp short-term changes.

The unadjusted figures in the B&A poll published yesterday April 17 are
FF28.1 FG 27.3 Lab 4.5 SF 21.3 Others 18.8
This is calculated by simply eliminating the undecideds and recalculating the percentages.
The adjusted figures provided by B&A are
FF 28 FG 29 Lab 5 Sinn Féin 18 Others 20
The main Loser from the adjustments is Sinn Féin

 

B&A   May 2017

Final  Outcome Three Month Rolling Average   Gen. Election 2016 in Brackets

FF                     FG                        Lab                      SF               Other

27.9 (24.3)       26.1 (25.1)            4.1(6.6)         22.0(13.8)    19.8(30.2)

 

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General Election   2016

FF        FG       Lab               SF             Other

24.3    25.1      6.6              13.8          30.2

B&A Poll May

Total          FF         FG                   Lab                     SF             other/GR               Undecided

921             200      206                  27                   137                  143                    208

Core            21.7     22.4               2.9                    14.9                15.5                    22.6

Final        28.1        28.9            3.8                      19.2               20.1

B&A Poll     April 16   2017

http://banda.ie/sunday-times-behaviour-attitudes-opinion-poll-april-2017/

Total           FF         FG           Lab               SF          Other/GR       undecided

971             207         201        33                 157          138              235

Core          21.3        20.7      3.4                 16.2        14.2              24.2

Final           28.1        27.3      4.5                  21.3       18.8

B&A Poll   March 11

Final            27.6        22.2       4.0               25.5           20.6

Core          21.9        17.7       3.2                  20.2         16.4            20.6

934            205          165         30                  189          153              192

 

B&A Poll   February

Core        27         15              4                       17              16                20

Final         34.2     19.0           5.1                   21.5           20.3

 

Replacing Feb Poll with May Poll

 

Final  Outcome Three Month Rolling Average   Gen. Election 2016 in Brackets

FF                     FG                        Lab                      SF               Other

27.9 (24.3)       26.1 (25.1)            4.1(6.6)         22.0(13.8)    19.8(30.2)

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Labour Gone ???

B&A Sunday Times  Poll Sunday 13/11/2016

LABOUR     3%    + or – 3.3%   !!!!!!!

FG 28 FF 30 SF 17 Lab 3 Others 22

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B&A Poll Sunday 18/09/2016

There is no statistically significant change since B&A July  Poll

If we compare the final outcome to-day with the General Election outcome, only the increase in Sinn Féin vote is significantly greater than the margin of error (3.3%) in the poll published to-day. Labour has dropped almost 2% since General Election but as this is less than margin of error of 3.3% it is unreliable

My adjustment to the core vote simply eliminates undecided respondents. B&A makes other adjustments which are at best arguable. As expected these other adjustments mainly benefit the Labour Party. When a core vote of 4 goes up to a final adjusted figure of 7, it has increased by 75%-almost as much as the core vote itself!

The breakdown of OTHERS is very unreliable. The numbers favouring them in the core vote is actually the same or less than the margin of error of 3.3%

 

B&A                      %

Sept 14          July 12                    Sept 14

Core              Core         Undecided Excluded

FG                        19                 20                        24.7

FF                         21                 23                        27.3

SF                          15                13                        19.5

Labour                  4                    3                            5.2

Green                   1                   1                             1.3

IND/Others         18                 19                            23.4

Undecided          23                 21

 

General Election Results were  FG 25.5  FF 24.3  SF 13.8

Lab 6.6 Other Independents 11.7  Independent Alliance 4.2   AAA/PBP 3.9 Soc Dem 3.0  Renua 2.2 Workers Party 0.2

 

If we compare the final outcome to-day with the general election outcome, only the increase in Sinn Féin vote is  significantly greater than the margin of error in the poll published to-day

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Labour Down to 4%-behind AAA-PBP on 5%

The RTE story has been amended – the figures broadcast earlier, while correct, were including undecideds at 17%.When these are excluded, the figures are:

Fine Gael – 30%, Fianna Fáil – 22%,Sinn Féin – 15%, Labour Party – 4%, Others 30%

Of Which: Independent Candidate – 10%,Anti-Austerity Alliance / People Before Profit Alliance – 5% Green Party – 3% Independent Alliance – 5% RENUA Ireland – 3% Social Democrats – 3% Workers Party – 1% Socialist Party – 0%

Sorry for any confusion caused-RTE.

Ipsos Mrbi Poll  Feb 3   Irish Times

Undecideds

The margin of error is plus or minus 2.8 per cent. The core vote for the parties – before undecideds are excluded – compared with the last poll was: Fine Gael, 21 per cent (down three); Labour, 6 per cent (up two); Fianna Fáil, 16 per cent (up one); Sinn Féin, 15 per cent (down two); Independents/ Others, 20 per cent (no change) and undecided voters, 22 per cent (up two points).

The strong showing by Independents and smaller parties is one of the main features of this first poll of the general election.

Non-aligned Independents headed the list with 8 per cent.

This was followed by the Anti-Austerity Alliance/People Before Profit with 4 per cent; the Shane Ross-led Independent group had 3 per cent.

The Social Democrats were on 2 per cent; Renua was on 1 per cent while other groups got 2 per cent. The Green Party was also on 2 per cent.

When it came to satisfaction ratings there was a decline of 2 per cent for the Government with party leaders Enda Kenny, Micheál Martin and Gerry Adams also slipping.

The only party leader to make a small improvement was Joan Burton.

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Labour Stuck at 4% Core Vote— Party Remains at Rock Bottom

CORE VOTE  B&A Jan 17        FG 20%     IND/OTH 21%     FF 15%    SF 14%   LP 4%                                                                       Undecided 27%

When approximately 1000 people were polled, less than 45  or 4% said they would vote Labour 

THIS IS A DISASTROUS OUTCOME FOR LABOUR

If undecided are eliminated and filters were not used as would happen in Millward Brown and Ipsos/MRBI Polls the outcome would be:

FG 27.4%,   Others 28.8%,  FF 20.55%, SF 19.2%, Labour 5.47%

The customary rounding to the nearest whole number would give

FG 27%,   Others 29%,  FF 21%, SF 19%, Labour 5%

With the use of filters B&A has given a final outcome

FG 31%, Others 27%, FF 20%, SF 16%,LP 6%

As usual the filters advantage FG and Labour and depress Sinn Fein and on this occasion Others also

In the context of a Margin of Error of+ or -3% for each party score, there is no change since the B&A poll of a month ago

Unlike Red C , B&A provides a genuine core vote or raw unprocessed poll. I exclude the Red C Core vote as it is an already processed outcome as I explain further down. The table below shows Core Votes for all polling companies for the last 6 months. A political  earthquake took place in the last local elections. The Labour Party lost 81 county council seats and were reduced to 51. The practice of B&A and RED C of employing filters to reflect how well parties polled in  the last  general election and modify the raw data accordingly is no longer reliable or appropriate. This was shown to be so in practice in the Red C poll immediately before the European election , held on the same day  as the local elections(See Further Down) . The accompanying RED C  commentary was entirely at variance with the outcomes!

B&A Jan 17                              FG 20%  IND/OTH 21%     FF 15%    SF 14%   LP 4% ,                                                                                                    Undecided 27%

B&A  Dec 3                          FG 20  Others 20,  LP 5,  SF 16, FF  15,

Undecided  27

Millward Brown Nov 8            FG 24,Others 16, SF 17,FF 19,LP 5,

Undecided 19

Sunday Times   Oct 18             FG 19,Other 29, SF 17, FF 11,  Lab 4,

undecided 19%

Ipsos/MRBI    Sept 24             FG 21, Others19, SF 15,FF 16, LP 7,

Undecided 22

B&A  August 16                             FG 19, Others 20, SF 15, FF 16, LP 4,

Undecided 26.

Millward Brown August 2        FG 19 Others 20  SF 17  FF 17 Lab 5

Undecided 23

 

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Proof of Research Conclusion on RED C

RED C-Average Estimates of Labour Seats in Next General Election based on these polls in all of 2015 are significantly greater than given by the two polling companies which do not use filters. Sinn Féin seats are also significantly underestimated

The Chart below is from Analyses of Polls in 2015 by Dr Adrian Kavanagh, NUIM carried on his blog Irish Elections: Geography, Facts and Analyses

The figures are the average no. of seats for each party based on all polls by the polling company concerned in 2015

Red C                          Av.  Seats: FG 53.6, FF31.4, SF27.1, Lab7.2, Others 38.6

Ipsos MRBI               Av.  Seats: FG54.5, FF31.8, SF33.3, Lab4.0, Others34.5

Millward Browne     AV. SEATS: FG  50.1, FF37.2,SF 36.6,Lab2.2,Others 31.4

 

RED C Is Completely Eliminating All Those Most “FED UP” With the Political System  from its Polls!!!! DISTORTION CONTINUES!

As can be seen from the chart below this gives Red C a figure less than 15% for undecideds in all of its polls for the last 6 months. The typical figure for all other polls in the same period is 25%.

The nearest comparable election to a General Election since this government came to power was the European Election of May 2014.

RED C predictions systematically underestimated Sinn Féin outcomes and over-estimated Labour Party outcomes (see below)

Those who SAY they are unlikely to vote were eliminated from the poll

Comment by Red C is totally at variance with the outcomes-sometimes bizzaarly so. See Red C Site  http://www.redcresearch.ie/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/31214-European-Election-Candidate-Polling-April-20141.pdfv

In my earlier post I said: Red C seem to be filtering the RAW POLL DATA  to establish what it calls a “Core Vote”! This effectively means RED C are applying the Likelihood to Vote filter twice!

Further investigation of the Red C mehtodology outlined on the RED C website shows that this is completely correct.

Formerly, I had assumed that the statement below described a filtering process subsequent to the establishment of a core vote. In all other Polls, “core vote” refers to raw polling data

RED C WEBSITE:  “Vote intention results are based on those who will actually go and vote, using a 10 point scale, where 1 is not at all likely and 10 is very likely, those rating 4 to 10 are included as being those who will actually go and vote.”

Clearly those who say they are very unlikely to vote are completely eliminated from the poll and their voting preference is not recorded in polling data.

Many of the cohort of the population eliminated from the poll will of course actually vote. “Hump the lot of them” is a common reaction to questions on political matters from many. But they may be persuaded to vote as some have been in the past!

At a minimum it can be said that RED C poll outcomes cannot be validly compared to outcomes from any other polling company. B&A(Sunday Times) which uses similar filters, begins with a genuine core vote corresponding to raw polling data.

As can be seen from the chart below this gives Red C a figure less than 15% for undecideds in all of its polls for the last 6 months. The typical figure for all other polls in the same period is 25%.

Having established what it call a core vote (undecideds normalised to 15% in all Red C  polls),RED C then proceeds to apply two filters- likelihood to vote(again) and recall of vote in last GENERAL ELECTION (not the more recent local election) filters. Where there is a difference between recall of voting by the persons polled in last general election and their current voting intention, the score for a party is placed half way between the two figures!! Under Likelihood to Vote FILTER(2) a greater weighting is given to voting preferences of those who say that they are certain to vote (7,8,9,10 on scale of 10) than those who say they will “possibly vote”(4,5,6 on a scale of 10)

In current circumstances the entire process implemented by Red C cannot fail to confer advantage on the more conservative parties and on those parties which polled well in the last general election and corresponding disadvantage on those who polled less well and on parties supported by  the poorer sections of the population (“Hump all the politicians”).

While there may have been some justification for these procedures in “normal times” in the past, there can be no justification for them in circumstances where political and economic earthquakes have taken place.

The 2014 Local election constituted a political earthquake with Lab sinking deeply as SF and left independents rising dramatically

RED C should explain to the public in non-technical language the procedures it is implementing.

If these procedures were disadvantaging conservative parties and parties supported by the the rich in opinion polls, they would have been changed by now!

B&A  Dec 13 :                        Undecided  27,

Red C DEC 3:                         Undecided 13%+1,

Red C Nov 23:                         Undecided10%-2,

Millward Brown Nov 8        Undecided 19,

RED C October  25:             Undecided 12%-1

Sunday Times Oct 18           Undecided 19%         

Ipsos/MRBI    Sept 24 :       Undecided 22,

B&A  August 16  :                 Undecided 26,

RED C   Sept 13  :                   Undecided 13%+1

.M B August 2:                      Undecided 23,

Red C July 26                     Undecided  12% (-1)  

B&A July 14:                     Undecided 23,

Red C June 28  :              Undecided 13%+1

B&A June 21   :            Undecided 28,

Red C SBPJUNE 7 :    Undecided 13%+1

European Election   May 2014

Proof of the Pudding

Dublin

Red C Prediction        Lab   13

Sinn Fein    15

Result                          Lab    7.4

Sinn Fein       23.6

Ireland-South

Red C Prediction                              Prendergast    Labour 9

Ni Riada           SF         14

Actual Result                                  Prendergast Labour       4.6

Liadha Ni Riada  Sf       19.1

Midlands-North-West

(Red C Comment:  “Henessy (Lab) could be pushing Matt Carthy (SF) for the fourth seat”–Reality: Matt Carthy got the third seat and Henessy was eliminated on the second count!!!)

RED C Prediction       Labour           5

Sinn Fein     14

Result

Labour                                               4.9

Sinn Féin                                          17.7

 

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Red C   Dec 20

Sunday Business Post-Red C poll): Fine Gael 32% , Independents and Others 23% , Sinn Fein 19% , Fianna Fail 17%% , Labour Party 9%

B&A Dec 13  FG 31%, FF 19%, SF 17%, LP 8% , Others 25

In the context of a Margin of Error of 3%, there is no significant difference between the overall outcome of these 2 polls on successive Sundays

Both B&A and Red C use similar Filters which advantage FG and Labour and disadvantage Sinn Féin.

In addition, Red C seem to be filtering the RAW POLL DATA  to establish what it calls a “Core Vote”! This effectively means RED C are applying the Likelihood to Vote filter twice!  B&A recorded an undecided figure of 27% last week. This is in line with typical Ipsos/MRBI (Irish Times) and Millward Brown(Sunday Independent) findings. RTE has just put the undecided vote at 15% in RED C this week. It says this is up by 5% since The last SBP RED C  poll. A difference of 12% in “undecideds” in a week in which there has been no major political developments cannot be due to changes in the sentiment of voters. Clearly, as I suggested earlier, RED C is filtering the RAW POLL DATA to establish its “Core Vote”! RED C should state exactly what it is doing!!

Taking this into account, it is possible that this Red C Poll is marginally worse for government parties than the B&A poll last week!

In the context of the effective application of 3 filters by Red C, the Sinn Féin score  of 19% is very healthy

 

However,

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Labour Collapsing Among Poorer Half of Population

LABOUR

Poorer Half  (C2DE Social Groups)       4%   Undecided  29%

Richer Half  (ABC1 Social Groups)         6%    Undecided 23%

EXTREME DISTORTION BY FILTERS IN B&A DEC 13
Sinn Féin Depressed 21 to 17%
Fine Gael Raised 27 to 31 %
Labour Raised 7 to 8%
Fianna Fail Depressed 21 to 19%

B&A DEC13 UNADJUSTED By FILTERS—Eliminating Undecideds Only

FG 27, Others 25, SF 21, FF 21, Lab 7

That Would Have Been The Outcome in Millward Brown or IPSOS/MRBI !!

Behaviour And Attitudes   Sunday Times  Dec 13

LIKE RED C, B&A also uses filters which, typically benefit FG and Lab and disadvantage Sinn Féin

There were 27% undecided, again far above Red C estimates

New B&A poll. Headline figures as follows: 

FG 31%(+5), FF 19%(+1), SF 17%(-4), LP 8% (+1), Others 25(-2)

OF Others

AAA-PBP 4%,GP 4%, IND ALL 2%, SD 1%, RENUA 1%, WP 1%, IND 11%

The comparison is with the Last B&A poll taken a month ago

If a comparison is made with Red C in Sunday business Post last week (below), there is little change in the context of a margin of error of 3%.

It is clear that FG is on an upward trend in recent months mainly at the expense of non-socialist independents and Renua. Labour is stuck at about 8% with the help of filters.

Sinn Féin and FF are becalmed

There are also left-wing TDs  opposed to coalition with FF and FG in the IND 11%–Seamus Healy, Joan Collins, Clare Daly

Together with 4% for AAA-PBP it is probable that anti-coalition left poll is comparable to that of Labour Party

REGIONAL SCORES

Before Undecideds(27 to 30%) were distributed

Regional vote for Labour Was

Dublin 7%, Leinster 5% Munster 5% Connacht/Ulster 0%

Sinn Féin

Dublin 15%  Leinster23% Munster10%  Connacht/Ulster16%

Others

Dublin   19%     Leinster 13% Munster  19%        Connacht/Ulster 11%

FG

Dublin 18% Leinster 19%  Munster 18%         Connacht/Ulster    25%

FF

Dublin 10% Leinster 12% Munster 16%            connacht/Ulster   28%

CORE VOTES NOW on B&A Site

RED C is omitted from series below as Red core vote is pre-processed

  Labour core votes since August      5, 4, 7, 4, 5, 5   !!!!

B&A  Dec 3                                    FG 20  Others 20,  LP 5,  SF 16, FF  15,

Undecided  27

Millward Brown Nov 8            FG 24,Others 16, SF 17,FF 19,LP 5,

Undecided 19

Sunday Times   Oct 18             FG 19,Other 29, SF 17, FF 11,  Lab 4,

undecided 19%

Ipsos/MRBI    Sept 24             FG 21, Others19, SF 15,FF 16, LP 7,

Undecided 22

Behav. and Att  August 16   : FG 19, Others 20, SF 15, FF 16, LP 4,

Undecided 26.

Millward Brown August 2        FG 19 Others 20  SF 17  FF 17 Lab 5

Undecided 23

——————————————————–

Red C Paddy Power   Dec 3

Fine Gael 28% (down 3%), Independents and Others 25% (NC), Fianna Fail 20% (up 1%), Sinn Fein 18% (NC), Labour Party 9% (NC).

As usual in RED C, Lab get a lift of 1% and SF get a reduction of 1% due to the filters. There is a level of “undecideds” which is well below levels in all other polls taken at roughly the same time. Clearly the “core vote” in Red C is not the raw poll unlike the case in other polls.
Because of the low regional sample size, we must be careful about conclusions
However the very low 6% for Labour in Munster is part of trend. The figure for Connacht/Ulster is 7% !!!!!!!!!!!!!-Dublin 12%, Rest of Leinster 13%
The traditional Labour vote in Munster is heavily weighted towards the working class

———————————————————

Red C Nov 21

Despite Pre-Processing (artificially low number of undecided voters) and the use of filters which favour Labor Party, Labour remains stuck on 7%. Based on D’Hondt system of seat allocation, Labour would secure only 1 seat in a general election-in Dublin Soth central. On the basis of this poll its main role will be to elect additional FG candidates on the basis of transfers from Labour. 

RED C  21/11/2015

Here’s the breakdown:

  • Fine Gael: 31% (up 1)
  • Fianna Fáil: 19% (down 1)
  • Sinn Féin: 18% (up two)
  • Labour: 7% (no change)
  • Independents/Others: 25% (down 2)

Those polled were not asked which independent or small party they favoured but  4% volunteered that they would vote for AAA/PBP!!!

This is within the 25% for others above

This is consistent with the 9% score by AAA/PBP in the B&A Sunday Times  PolL published last Sunday

——————————————————

Scandalous Suppression of Bad News for Government by RTE

It is SCANDALOUS that this is not being covered on RTE after all the hype for FG last week

Radical Parties Reach 30% as Labour Drops—Stephen O’Brien, Sunday Times 15/11/2015  

” The Labour Party’s poor result(in B&APoll) is echoed in the satisfaction ratings , where there is a FIVE POINT fall in the number of people satisfied with the government performace with Enda Kenny, the Taiseach, is down 2 points to 31%(satisfaction) and Joan burton, the Tánaiste drops to 34%” -Sunday Times to-day

Labour Disaster in B&A Sunday Times Poll

Good Poll for the Left and Sinn Fein

Core Vote

FG 18, Others20, SF 17,FF14, Lab5, undecided 26

Excluding Undecided(no filters)

FG 25, Others 26,SF 23, FF19, Lab 7    The outcome comparable to Millward Brown In S Independent Last week

Excluding Undecided  with Filters

FG 26,Others 26,SF 21,FF 20,Lab 7.  FILTERS REDUCE SF vote and increase FG

Labour is one point down on August 2016   in Sunday Times B&A Poll tomorrow

In Overall Outcome Labour 7%, AAA/PBP  9%

AAA/PBP  + Seamus Healy Td + Clare Daly Td + Joan Collins TD+ Cllr Kieran Perry +Cllr Brendan Young=    9% + + + + +

Poorest Half of Population  (social categories C2DE) including Undecided-No filters

SF 23, Others 19,FF13, FG12, Lab5, Undecided  29

Excluding Undecided no filters

SF  32,  Others 27% , FF 18%  FG 17, Lab 10

Dublin Including Undecided(No filters)

FG 17,Others 23, SF 15,FF 11,Lab 7, Undecided  27

Dublin Excluding Undecided no filters

Others 32, FG 23, SF 21, FF 15, Lab 10

within “Others”  AAA/PBP   17%!   – greater than FF and Labour

Munster Including Undecided no Filters

SF 18, FF 18,Others 15, FG 14,Lab 4, Undecided 31

Munster Excluding Undecided-no filters

SF 26  FF 26  Others 22  FG 20 Lab 6%

——————————————————————————————————————–

MINISTER Sherlock(Labour) in Trouble in Cork East

A former Labour Party stalwart in Co Cork, Cllr Noel McCarthy, is expected to announce within days that he will join Fine Gael and run as a candidate for that party in the next general election.-Irish Examiner 11/11/2015

(He has now been removed From Labour Party Website)

Cllr McCarthy headed the poll in Fermoy Ward of Cork Co council in local elections. In the Kanturk-Mallow Ward , home base of Minister Sean Sherlock, the labour party candidate came second last and was eliminated

Could this be a trend? Remenber Labour leader, Michael O’Leary joining Fine Gael!

Millward Brown Poll NOV 8  and Recent Core Votes in other Polls

Margin of Error c.  + or – 3%

 

B&A Jan 17 FG 20%     IND/OTH 19%     FF 15%    SF 14%   LP 4%  GP 2%
Undecided 27%

B&A  Dec 3                                    FG 20  Others 20,  LP 5,  SF 16, FF  15,

Undecided  27

Millward Brown Nov 8            FG 24,Others 16, SF 17,FF 19,LP 5,

Undecided 19

Sunday Times   Oct 18             FG 19,Other 29, SF 17, FF 11,  Lab 4,

undecided 19%

Ipsos/MRBI    Sept 24             FG 21, Others19, SF 15,FF 16, LP 7,

Undecided 22

Behav. and Att  August 16   : FG 19, Others 20, SF 15, FF 16, LP 4,

Undecided 26.

Millward Brown August 2        FG 19 Others 20  SF 17  FF 17 Lab 5

Undecided 23

LABOUR ALLOCATED ZERO SEATS ON BASIS OF POLL By Adrian Kavanagh, NUI-MAYNOOTH

The old story which began in 1948 (or more correctly in 1921) is reasserting itself–Labour destroying itself propping up FG!

Core vote will be posted later

On the basis of the same 7% outcome for Labour in August, Adrian Kavanagh gives Labour 4 seats-Dublin Fingal,Dublin Mid-west, Dublin South West ad Kildare North. On the basis of the current poll he gives these 4 seats to FG with the Labour transfers electing the second FG candidate.
I very much doubt if FG will get two seats in Dublin Mid-West and Dublin South West particularly.
The strong indication from the poll is that the non-socialist independents have lost support to FG
The budget gave 180 million in tax relief to incomes over 70,000 including 9.2 million to the top 10,000 on average incomes of 595,000 per annum while 30 million was provided for extra beds in hospitals.
Financial assets now above boom levels were left untouched. If you benefitted from these decisions, wouldn’t you be mad to vote for right-wing mavericks?
The old story which began in 1948 (or more correctly in 1921) is reasserting itself. Labour destroys itself resurrecting FG!

The only clear majority governments available are FF and FG, and FG and Sinn Féin in coalition.On Fine Gael and Sinn Féin in coalition Adrian kavanagh says “such an alliance looks highly unlikely in the present political climate.” But then Adrian lacks political experience!

REd C Filters Distort Outcome as Usual

From Red C Site
The “core vote ” below cannot be unprocessed data. As usual the “undecided” figure at 15 is well below the same figure in all other polls which is typically over 20
As usual Labour Gain and SF lose in the filtering process

From Red C Site

“Core Vote”
FG 25 Lab 5 FF 16 SF 15 Others 24 Undecided 15
Eliminating Undecideds but without Filtering
FG 29.4 Lab 5.9 FF 18.8 SF 17.6 Others 28.2
Final Outcome –After Filtering and eliminating Undecideds
FG 30 Lab 7 FF20 SF 16 Others 27

Labour Meltdown. Labour drop 3% to 7% in RED C POLL  OCT 25 Independents Remain Very Strong at 28%

7% for Labour in Red C is equivalent to 6% or even 5% in IPSOS/MRBI and Millward Brown due to the use of filters favourable to Labour by Red C. Because Labour got 19.4% in the last General Election, it gets a bonus from the application of the filter based on the “the recall of past vote in General Election” . The same filter normally reduces the Sinn Féin vote because SF got less than 10% in the last General Election. The assumption of Red C that Labour voters in 2011 will tend to revert to Labour in the coming election is, to say the least, highly questionable. This is the “justification” for the use of the filter.
This poll confirms the dire news for Labour in theB&A poll published last Sunday. Labour expectations of a lift from buget have proved false.
Adrian Kavanagh gives Labour only two seats in next General Election-both in Dublin(South Central and D.West)
Noel Whelan said on RTe Sat OCT 24 that the outcome of the next election will be “seismic”Scroll Down to-more  Poor Desert Labour as Sinn Féin and Independents head C2DE Poll.  B&A Oct 18   FG and FF, each, have double the support of Labour among the poor B&A Poll Social Categories  C2DE   –Poorer half of population    Sample 421    MOE  +or – 5%

SF                       22%

Others                 20 %

FG                      14%

FF                       13%

Lab                      6%

Undecided            26%

——————————————————————————————————————

Shocking Performance by Labour Party(4%) in Dublin in B&A Poll Sunday Times   Oct 18
Sample 248 MOE +or- 6%
Other 25%,FG 19%, SF 17%, FF 11%, Green 4%, Lab 4%, undecided 19%

Sunday Times B&A poll  National Vote//

Core Vote
B&A Oct 18 FF 15  FG18  Lab 5  SF 16 Others 21   Undecided 23

Labour TD, Eamonn Moloney and his supporters Resign from Labour Party to Run as Independent in Dublin South West  Leaving aside the one about rats and sinking ships, there is a more interesting aspect to this development. All but one seat allocated to Labour by Adrian Kavanagh on the basis of the recent Ipsos/Mrbi poll is in Dublin. The constituencies concerned elected two Labour Tds in the last election because there was a huge swing to Labour in WORKING CLASS Dublin. . Consequently when national reductions in Labour support since the last election are reflected in polls and applied to constituencies correctly from a mathematical point of view this leaves Labour with one seat where it had two.(The single other retention is Cork East where LP got 30.8% of the vote and just failed to get two seats). But this leaves out of account the huge swing against Labour in the poorer social strata. This was clear in the Dublin South West Bye-Election in which AAA and SF were both well ahead of Labour. It is my judgement that the Labour TDs most likely to retain seats are the likes of Emmet Stagg and Willie Penrose who have very strong records of constituency work and very big constituency profiles. They may also have some prospects in the better-off Dublin constiuencies. Clearly Eamonn Moloney and his supporters share at least some of this analysis. One of the consequences of unpopularity for a political party is a low rate of transfer BETWEEN IT’S OWN CANDIDATES. Hence the preference for a one candidate strategy. Additionally, the one LP candidate may hope to be ahead of the weaker FF and FG candidates and to benefit from transfers from these against Sinn Féin and the Left.—————————————————————————————————————————————————–

New IPSOS/MRBI POLL   Sept 24   When core votes are considered, in the context of a margin of error of + or – 2.8%, there appears to be no definite trend since June 

CORE VOTES (Red C Polls are omitted because undecided voters are being returned at typically at 10 points lower than in all other polls)

Margin of Error c.  + or – 3%

Ipsos/MRBI   Sept 24             FG 21, Others19, SF 15,FF 16, LP 7, undecided 22

Behav. and Att  August 16   : FG 19, Others 20, SF 15, FF 16, LP 4,  Undecided 26.

Millward Brown August 2        FG 19 Others 20  SF 17  FF 17 Lab 5 Undecided 23

Behav. and Att.  July 14          FG 18 Others 25  SF 15  FF 15 Lab 5 Undecided 23

MillwardBrown   June 28         FG 23 Others 17  SF 17  FF 19 Lab 5 Undecided 19

Behav. and Att. June 21          FG 15, Others 20, SF 16, FF 17, Lab 4, Undecided 28

———————————————————————————————————————————

Irish Examiner    Aug 5

Minister Kathleen Lynch missed the deadline yesterday to seek a Labour Party nomination for her constituency of Cork North Central.

Not a single Labour candidate had emerged by the noon deadline, despite the fact that Ms Lynch has repeatedly rejected rumours that she is to retire from parliamentary politics.

While her name can be added to the ticket at the constituency convention next Thursday, there was widespread confusion last night among leading party supporters about whether Ms Lynch will run or not.

“Kathleen Lynch has made no final decision as to whether she will put herself forward as a candidate in the next general election,” a Labour Party spokesman said last evening.

Labour Panic Sets In !!! TD Scrambles for FG Transfers as Labour Vote Plummets

Anne Phelan, Labour Td(Carlow-Kilkenny) seeks joint manifesto with FG in general Election -Irish Independent
This is why:
“Attention should also be paid to constituencies where FG have more than 1 quota but not enough for 2 seats. There ARE some of these. The FG excess could be used to elect a Labour candidate to the last seat. We could have a small number of Labour TDs “kept” by Fine Gael!!!”- my earlier  comment on Cedar Lounge Revolution

August 17  Labour Core Vote Sinks Further to 4%   Scroll down for More

B&A August 16   Core Vote  FG 19%, IND/OTH 19%, FF 16%, SF 15%, LP 4%, GP 1%, Undecided 26%.

This is as low as Labour has been for over a year. If undecideds had merely been eliminated as happens in all polls except Red C and B&A the final outcome would have been 5% not the 6% reported in Sunday Times Aug 16

The elevation from 5 to 6% is as a result of the application of filters which are no longer applicable in my opinion.

The reality is that when 898 people were asked, 36 said that they would vote Labour and 135 said they would vote for Sinn Féin. This is dreadful news for the Labour Party. NUI Maynooth, political geographer, Adrian Kavanagh awrded Labour 1 seat only on the basis of the poll.

See the 7 most recent polls, including this B&A Poll,  below

……………………………………………………………………………………………

August 2

Labour Remain at Rock Bottom at Average  5% Score in 6 recent Polls.

The most recent is the Millward Brown Poll in Sunday Independent August 2

There is some evidence from the set of 6 core votes below that the high vote for FG in Millward Brown June 28 was an “outlier” or statistical freak. In other words the Fine Gael score was already much lower in reality. One week previously B&A reported FG a full 8 points lower in it’s core vote. The Labour scores are consistently bleak.

The stability of the SF, FF and Labour votes is remarkable in all 6 polls

Recent RED C polls are omitted below because its “core vote” is pre-processed and therefore not comparable to the core vote in all other polls

TOXICITY  In the same poll, when people were asked what party or parties would the not vote for in any circumstance, Fine Gael and Labour headed the toxicity list

Sinn Féin was less toxic than FG  and Labour despite the best efforts of the Irish Media to demonise SF

Recent Core Votes-Undecideds Included

These record what people actually responded to the pollsters-no filters or other “processing” has been carried out

Behav. and Att  August 16   : FG 19, Others 20, SF 15, FF 16, LP 4,  Undecided 26.

Millward Brown August 2        FG 19 Others 20  SF 17  FF 17 Lab 5 Undecided 23

Behav. and Att.  July 14          FG 18 Others 25  SF 15  FF 15 Lab 5 Undecided 23

MillwardBrown   June 28         FG 23 Others 17  SF 17  FF 19 Lab 5 Undecided 19

Behav. and Att. June 21          FG 15, Others 20, SF 16, FF 17, Lab 4, Undecided 28

Ipsos/Mrbi         May 18           FG 22 Others 19  SF 17   FF 15 Lab 6 Undecided 21

Behav &Att.       May 17           FG 19 Others23   SF 17    FF 12 Lab 5 Undecided 25

July 18 Ind/Others Soar to 32%

FF+FG may not make a majority?

B&A Poll   Sunday Times July 18

Sinn Féin score was reduced by 3 points in Sunday Times/B&A  Poll  by use of “filters”

SF would have got  20% not 17% in other polls based on same data

Significant 5 point move from undecided to independents/others (32%)

B&A July 14   Margin of Error  +or -3% on scores of individual parties

http://banda.ie/wp-content/uploads/Sunday-Times-Poll-18th-July-2015.pdf

Core: July 14         FF 15    FG 18  SF 15  Lab 5   Others 25    Undecided 23—–B&A

Core: June 15        FF 17   FG15   SF 16    Lab 4   Others 20    Undecided 28——-B&A

July 14  B&A  Excluding Undecided Unadjusted (No Filters used)

FF19    FG24    Lab7      SF 20   Others32

July 14 B&A  Final Outcome-Excluding Undecided With use of likelihood to vote and recall of vote in last GENERAL ELECTION  Filters

FF 18   FG24   Lab8    SF17   Others 32

Core Votes  Since Mid-March   (Red C excluded due to unexplained “pre-processing” of core votes by Red C)

Core Votes        http://wp.me/pKzXa-jh

B&A             July 14                FG 18     Others 25   SF 15       FF 15    Lab 5       Undecided 23

B&A            June 21                 FG 15,  Others 20,     SF 16,     FF 17,      Lab 4,     Undecided 28

Ipsos/Mrbi      May 18               FG 22   Others 19       SF 17      FF 15     LP  6      Undecided  21

B&A                 May 17             FG  19   Others23        SF 17      FF 12      LP  5     Undecided  25

Millward Brown   April 4           FG 20    Others 16,      SF 19        FF 15     Lab 7,      Undecided 20

Ipsos/MRBI      Mar 25            FG 18,    Others 22,      SF 18       FF 13,      Lab 5,     Undecided 24

B&A               Mar 16              FG 19     Others 19,      SF19        FF 14,       Lab 5,      Undecided 24

Red C   June 26 CORE

FG 24, Others 22,  FF 17  SF 17,  Lab 5, Undecided 15   Margin of error  +or – 3%

Core Vote  (before filters are applied and before elimination of undecided)  As undecided is again unusually low in Red C, it appears that some processing of raw vote has already taken place

FG 24, Others 22,  FF 17  SF 17,  Lab 5, Undecided 15   Margin of error  +or – 3%

Very low level of support for Labour Confirmed       5%       +or – 3!!!!!

FF, SF  are neck and neck for months

UPDATE June 21

B&A Poll Sunday Times Sunday June 21 (%)

The main feature of this B&A Poll is the decline of 5 points in the core vote for government parties and the increase of 5 points for FF in comparison with B&a poll of May 17, almost exactly a month ago. Labour is again at its lowest ever(?) core vote of 4%.  This means that only 40 out of 1000 positively said that they would vote Labour when asked.

As polling companies employ “adjustments” to the raw poll which may be specific to each, it is best to compare raw votes or core votes. I have argued that the filters employed by B&A and REd C are inappropriate in current political circumstances. This is underlined again to-day in the fact that Labour who got only 4% in the core vote gained 3% from the filters!!!! The 28% undecided in this poll underlines again the question mark over the Undecided figures in Red C polls(14% on June 7)

Core Vote

In comparison to B&A 17.5.2015 almost exactly a month ago

Ind/Others 20(-3), FF17(+5),  SF16(-1),  FG 15(-4),  Lab 4(-1), Undecided 28(+3)

Excluding Undecided

Ind/Otthers 29, FF 24, SF 22, FG 21,  LAB 6,

“Adjusted” for likelihood to vote and recall of past voting intention

Ind/Others 28, FF21,  SF 19,  FG 24,  Lab 9.

Core Votes

B&A July 14                               FF 15    FG 18  SF 15  Lab 5   Others 25    Undecided 23

Red C June 26                        FG 24, Others 22,    FF 17  SF 17,   Lab 5,       Undecided 15

B&A                June 21             FG 15, Others 20,     SF 16,   FF 17,      Lab 4,     Undecided 28

Red C SBP    JUNE 7             FG  25   Others 18        SF 19      FF17      LP 7      Undecided  14

Ipsos/Mrbi      18/5                FG 22   Others 19       SF 17      FF 15     LP  6      Undecided  21

B&A                 17/5              FG  19   Others23        SF 17      FF 12      LP  5     Undecided  25

Millward Brown   April 4         FG 20    Others 16,      SF 19      FF 15     Lab 7,   Undecided 20

Red C              Mar 29          FG23      Others 24      SF 16      FF15      Lab 8     Undecided  14

Ipsos/MRBI      Mar 25          FG 18,    Others 22,      SF 18     FF 13,   Lab 5,     Undecided 24

B&A               Mar 16            Fg 19     Others 19,      SF19      FF 14,    Lab 5,     Undecided 24

Red C             Feb 22            Fg 21     Others 26       Sf 19      FF  15    Lab 5   Undecided  14

 MB

Why the Discrepency  in “Undecideds” between RED C and All other Polling Companies?

“UNDECIDED” AVERAGE

Red C  (3polls)                                                  Average Undecided        14%

All other Polling Companies (6 polls)                   Average undecided        25%

Margin of error on Polls is typically c 3%

RED C must be doing something quite different in determining “undecideds” than all other polling companies

Red C site: Vote intention results are based on those who will actually go and vote, using a 10 point scale, where 1 is not at all likely and 10 is very likely, those rating 4 to 10 are included as being those who will actually go and vote

Does this mean that only those rating 4 to 10 are included in “core vote”.

After a core vote is established in Red C polls a likelihood to vote filter is applied  subsequently! Is this filtering based solely on the 4 to 10 likely to vote cohort?

——————————————————————————————————————————————-

May 24 LABOUR DISASTER IN CARLOW-KILKENNY BYE-ELECTION Labour Tally  Carlow-Kilkenny Bye Election Labour Candidate Willie Quinn Lives near Bagenalstown (Muine Beag) Carlow area where he got almost 50% of his votes. He as the only candidate of a major party from Co Carlow. Otherwise he would have dipped below 5% over all!!!!! He got only(c.1500) or 3% of the vote in Co Kilkenny where Minister of State Phelan is a Labour TD 96%   of boxes tallied LAB        %                Area  Total Muine Beag        2094      21.6%               9694 Carlow Town         738      7.9%                 9341 ——————————————————————————– Co Carlow Total    2832    14.9%               19,035 Castlecomer            415     3.6%                11,528 Kilkenny west           170     1.6%                 10,625 Kilkenny East            377     3.4%                  11,088 Ferry bank                 257     2.4 %                10,708 Postal votes                40      7.8%                  513 Co Kilkenny Total      1259   2.8%                44,462 Constituency Total    4,091   6.44%               63,497 Actual First Count      4,673    7.0%                66,834 The tallies above can be “fitted” to the actual outcome by increasing the area totals by 5% and the Labour totals by 11% The 5% increase in area totals and in the tallied total valid poll corresponds to compensation for the 4% of boxes not tallied. The 11% increase in Labour totals in each area and in the Labour total corresponds to a combination of compensation for   boxes not tallied and for the fact that the tally team missed 1 in 20 of Labour votes. This is not unusual. Government Support Exactly Halved in Bye-Election! First Preference Vote    Carlow Kilkenny Constituency General Election 2011 FG+Lab       39.22+16.25         =55.47% Bye-Election  2015       FG+Lab        20.6+7.0         =27.6% Reduction  in Gov Support                               = 27.87% Break the Media Conspiracy of Silence!!! If this were repeated in a General Election in the 5 seat Carlow-Kilkenny Constituency, Labour would lose the seat held by Minister Phelan FG would definitely lose 1 of its 3 seats but could lose 2 Fianna Fail likely to gain a seat ending with 2 Sinn Féin   Will definitely take a seat Sinn Féin   First Pref Bye-election      16.2% Sinn Féin First Pref in GE 2011          9.54% Quota in 5 seat Constituency             16.7% Not Mentioned In   Media!!! Very Bad Bye-Election for Fine Gael –Drop of 15% of Poll on 2011 General Election After the General Election 2011 Fine Gael Held 3 Seats in Carlow-Kilkenny having polled 39.22% of First Preference Votes General Election 2011 FG First Preference Total=                                                      39.22% Bye-Election 2015 FG  First Preference               13,744                                       20.6% FG  First Pref.+Renua Transfers  13,74+2,263=16,007             24.0% Reduction                                                                                 15.22%

May 18

Only 60 out of a thousand say they will vote Labour in IPSOS/MRBI Poll Dr Adrian Kavanagh NUIM Predicts 2 seats for Labour!

Fianna Fail 36, Fine Gael 55, Sinn Fein 33, Labour Party 2, Independents and Others 32

Dreadful News For Labour Confirmed in Second Poll

No Difference in 2 Recent Polls when Margin of Error(MoE) is Applied

Comparing  Raw Polls

Ipsos/Mrbi  Monday 18/5     FG   22   Others 19   SF 17      FF  15     LP  6     Undecided  21 MoE  +or-2.8% B&A  Sunday 17/5                FG  19  Others23     SF 17      FF 12      LP  5     Undecided  25  MoE  +or -3.2% (Ipsos/Mrbi, unlike B&A, doesn’t use Filters)

May 17 B&A   General Election Poll Sunday May 17 Only 50 out of a thousand say they will vote Labour in Poll! Gap of 2% between SF and FG in Raw Poll increases to 7% due to Processing Labour Vote almost Increases by three fifths  in “Processing” http://banda.ie/wp-content/uploads/J.6535-Sunday-Times-May-Poll-2015.pdf

Stated Outcome:  Fine Gael 27% (NC), Independents and Others 26% (up 2%), Sinn Fein 20% (up 1%), Fianna Fail 17% (down 1%),  Labour Party 8% (down 1%), Green Party 3% (NC).

B&A    May 17 Raw Vote                       FG 19    Others23   Sinn Féin 17    FF 12    LP 5

Undecided 25

Excluding Undecided1         FG  25  Others 30   Sinn Féin 22    FF 15    LP 7 Filters Applied2                   FG 27    Others29   Sinn Fein 20     FF 17    LP 83 ———————————————————————————————————————————————————————————— 1    without rounding           FG 25.3   Others 30.7   SF22.7        FF 16(?) LP 6.7 2   Liklihood to vote and Past Voting Record in GENERAL ELECTION filters used

3 LP vote is so small that exclusion of undecideds, rounding and filters increase it by 3/5=60% April 28   RED C releases Core Vote Final Outcome is reached by applying a likelihood to vote filter, then a recall of voting in last GENERAL Election filter and finally by eliminating the modified undecided which was 14%( not 20% as in core vote!) Core Vote             Undecided 20  Others 20  FF 14  FG 20  Lab 6  SF 20

Final outcome        Others 26  FF 19  FG 25 Lab 8   SF 22

Note how FG and Lab are advantaged by this process and Sinn Féin is disadvantaged in this process

%  of core vote by which  each party increases through Red C processing FG   +25% SF +10% Lab  +33% FF +  35% Others +  30%

April 26 Red C (SBP)

Final outcome FG 25% [-2%]. LP 8% [-2%], SF 22% [+5%], FF 19% [+1%], Ind/Small Parties 26 [-2%].

Corevote Undecided 17%   Others 22  FF 16   FG 21 Lab 7 SF 18

full Red C Results not yet posted

Update March 30 CORE VOTES Red C Mar 29                 Undecided  14 Others 24  FF15 FG23 Lab 8    SF 16 Ipsos/MRBI  Mar 25     Undecided 24, Others 22, FF 13, FG 18, Lab 5,SF 18 B&A   Mar 16                    Undecided 24, Others 19, FF 14, Fg 19, Lab 5, SF 19 Is it credible that 10% of population left “undecided”, made up their minds and 8% extra voted for government parties within a week in which no major political event took place? Is Red C “pre-processing” data to get core vote ? Or is it asking further questions of “undecideds”.? If so it should declare this on its site. “Undecided” voter figures are consistently lower in Red C than in other polls On the blog  The Cedar Lounge Revolution, Liberius has stated://

“It’s worth pointing out though that Red C’s numbers are statistically more favourable to FG and Labour than any of the other polling firms; an average of 28% for FG in all of their polls since January 2012, with an average of 11% for Labour.” (See below for use of special weighting factors or filters by Red C and B&A which are not used by Ipsos/Mrbi or Millward Brown ).

UPDATE MARCH 25 IPSOS/MRBI(Irish Times) to-day is virtually identical to B&A(Sunday Times) March 16 Ipsos/MRBI  Mar 25  Undecided 24, Others 22, FF 13, FG 18, Lab 5, SF 18 B&A   Mar 16                 Undecided 24, Others 19, FF 14, Fg 19, Lab 5, SF 19 The probable error for 95% confidence on each party score is approximately 3% in both cases Ipsos/Mrbi unlike B&A, does not use likelihood to vote or recall of vote in the last  general election filters(weighting factors). The final outcome in B&A for FG was 27% and for SF was 19%    !!! The final outcome in IPSOS/MRBI for FG was 24% and for SF was 24%   !!! The difference is the application of outdated filters by B&A!!!! I can see or hear no comment in the media this morning to the effect that the results of the two polls are in  fact identical. !!!!! VOTE By Social Stratum in IPSOS/MRBI Poll Today (Percentages) These figures should be treated with caution as the probable error on them is very high due to low sample size  The social strata in descending order of wealth and status are taken as A,B, C, D1, D2

A+B voters: FG 43, Ind/Oth 31, FF 14, Lab 7, SF 6 C1 voters: Ind/Oth 29, FG 24, FF 19, SF 19, Lab 9 C2 voters: Ind/Oth 31, SF 30, FG 19, FF 14, Lab 5 D+E voters: SF 36, Ind/Oth 26, FF 16, FG 15, Lab 8 Note the huge 43% for FG in the two uppermost strata and the large 36% for Sinn Féin among the two lowest strata. The really bad news for Labour is that it is only scoring 8% among the two lowest strata!!!! It comes last of all parties and others among the poorest strata. Farmers are treated seperately with F1 being the catefory of those above 50 good acres and F2 being those below that. F1/F2 voters: FG 35, FF 29, SF 17, Ind/Oth 17, Lab 2 FF+FG account for 64% but 17% for Sinn Féin is substantial.

UPDATE MARCH 16,2015 OUTDATED FILTERS DISTORT POLLS-Advantaging Government Parties Poll Results Distorted By Filters Unlike Millward Brown who simply eliminate undecideds B&A and REDC who reported in recent days apply “filters” to voting intentions expressed in polls Take the recent Sunday Times B&A Poll as an example. B&A Mar15  Undecided 24, Others 19, FF 14,  FG 19,  Lab 5, SF 19-Core Vote B&A website The  elimination of undecided gave Others 25% FF 18 FG 25% Lab 7 SF 25%—–B&A website But  after “Filtering” Sinn Fein were 6% lower and FG were 2% higher giving Others 26%  FF18%   FG 27%   Lab 9%  SF  19% —B&A website Overall FG and SF started on 19% in core vote –FG rose by 8 points to 27% but Sinn Féin remained on 19% after processing despite the elimination of 24% undecided!!!! The actual Labour vote was almost doubled!! Why Filters Employed by B&A and REDC Are No Longer Valid Likelihood To Vote Filter Unlike recent GENERAL elections the less well-off are not now passive but are actively organising against austerity. Those of us who regularly call to homes in local authority estates know that the residents are “spitting blood” at the government and particularly at the Labour Party and rightly so. They will be highly motivated to vote in the next general election. This should largely cancel out the perception that “the poor don’t vote” as expressed in this filter. Recall of Voting in Last General Election Filter This filter puts in to effect the normal tendency of voter to “stray” between general elections but to return to old habits in the actual election. Given the political earthquake evident in the recent local and European elections it is clear that this tendency is very unlikely to be as effective as in the past if, indeed, it exists at all. Indeed, it is my view that poll results would be even more highly distorted by this filter but for the “selective amnesia” of human beings in relation to unpleasant events and past misdeeds.  Fortunately, large numbers who clearly voted for FG and Lab cannot recall doing so!!!!! ——————————————————————- 27-10-2013 It is important to realise that the 9% attributed to Labour by RED C is not an increase on the 6% attributed to it on Oct 1 by Irish Times IPSOS/MRBI. This is because these polling companies process the raw data quite differently. Dr  Adrian Kavanagh(NUI Maynooth) has pointed out that Labour is polling consistently higher in Red C polls. In previous messages, I have shown how Red C unduly elevates the Labour (and the FG) votes. This is basically because REd C allocates half the “DONT’T Knows” (after the c. 10% who are unlikely to vote are excluded) in the proportion achieved by the parties in the last general election as recalled by those polled! This cannot fail to advantage Labour and FG and to disadvantage FF , SF and Others. I believe that this process is unjustified in a rapidly changing and unprecedented political situation, The IPSOS/MRBI figure(6%) for Labour is the lowest since 1987. The RED C figure(9%) for Labour is the lowest for decades. According to Dr Kavanagh, based on essentially  similar raw data in both polls, if IPSOS/MRBI forecast turns out to be correct in a general election, Labour will get between zero and four seats. If the REDC forecast turns out to be correct, Labour will get 9 seats  In any event Labour will suffer huge losses in the local and European elections RED C explains its treatment of raw data here: http://redcresearch.ie/blog/do-undecided-voters-desire-for-new-party Analysis by Dr Kavanagh, including allocation of seats by constituency in accordance with the poll, is available here:  http://politicalreform.ie/2013/10/26/apres-la-guerre-constituency-level-analyses-of-post-budget-opinion-polls/ Paddy Healy

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  1. Pat Mc Daid. (Drogheda, Labour Party).
    August 4, 2016 at 12:01 pm

    Who needs Right Wing Capitalists to attack the party of the workers when erstwhile leftists (scratch them and they are actually green nationalists anyway) are so willing to attack Labour, and take joy out of our travails, when they themselves haven’t lifted a finger to organise for workers and left wing unity, ever. They prefer to mimic the cult of Sinn Fein.

    • August 4, 2016 at 3:27 pm

      Pat,
      You are clearly ill-informed.
      I worked for the Labour Party in its “no-coalition” period in the late sixties. I was elected to its national executive but expelled at the first meeting after opposing the return to coalition policy carried at the 1970 annual conference.
      I was a member of the executive of the Dublin Council of Trade unions which led the campaign for tax equity fior Paye workers in the late 70s and early eighties
      I was president of the Teachers Union Of Ireland from 2005-2007 and spent 8 years on its national executive
      I am currently retired and a member of the national executive of the Retired Members Association of TUI and I chair its Dublin Branch
      I am currently attempting to organise a 32-county campaign against austyerity north and south. I am getting no support rom the Labour Party or Sinn Féin but there is growing interest.
      By the way, I organised a Dublin Support Committee for the Drogheda Cement strikers over 30 years ago
      I don’t mimic anybody except James Connolly

  2. October 7, 2017 at 10:16 pm

    From the frying pan into the pot, that’s the political scene in Ireland that is my experience of the left and not so left SF in the water campaign. We have written plenty about it in Buncrana Together eg see http://buncranatogether.com/home/2017/10/6/platitudes-and-bromide-in-irelands-political-scene. and go to comments.

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