Home > irish Politics > Analysis of Donegal SW by-election,

Analysis of Donegal SW by-election,

There are interesting pointers in the results of the Donegal South West By Election in addition to the first preference percentages. The actual counts are pasted below

As the combined vote of O’Neill +O’Domhnall was less than the O’Doherty total, O’Doherty was elected without reaching the Quota on the fouth count.

Fianna Fail fell behind Fine Gael on this count

On the final count, the combined FF+FG total was less than the Quota of 50%+1vote and less than the Sinn Fein total.(On First Count SF+Lab+LeftIndependent=60%)
Mc Brearty transfer to Fine Gael was 26% as against 43% to Sinn Fein. This was much less than a traditional Fg/Lab coalition transfer. The transfers from McBrearty and from Pringle to Fianna Fail were 8% and 12% respectively. This is less than half the Fianna Fail percentage of Poll on the first count. This indicates that Fianna Fail will suffer even more on crucial late counts than on first count in the next election. Labour and Left Independent transfers to Sinn Feinn worked well exceeding 40% in both cases.
The dog that didn’t bark in the night—-
Left Independent Thomas Pringle was not squeezed by Sinn Fein or by Labour.In the Spring-tide election Labour squeezed all other lefts. In the coming election the defection from Fianna Fail will be so great that left independents and Sinn Fein will be lifted as well as Labour. This augurs well for the prospects of the recently launched Unite Left Alliance in the next election. A Labour/Sinn Fein/Left majority may yet be possible on the numbers. The next election is likely to take place after the budget cuts are implemented. The defection from Fianna Fail will be all the greater.

Donegal SW Count
First Count
Pearse Doherty 13,719
Frank McBrearty 3,366
Brian Ó’Domhall 7354
Barry O’Neill 6,424
Thomas Pringle 3,438
Anne Phelan 131

Independent who had withdrawn before election eliminated
Second Count
Pearse Doherty (+17) 13,736,
Frank McBrearty (+9) 3,375,
Brian Ó’Domhall (+4) 7,358,
Barry O’Neill (+18) 6,442,
Thomas Pringle (+53) 3,491.

Mc Brearty Eliminated
Third Count

Pearse Doherty (SF) +1452 = 15,188 +43% of McB
Brian Ó’Domhall (FF) +278 = 7,636 +8.2% of McB
Barry O’Neill (FG) +871 = 7,313 +25.8% of McB
Thomas Pringle (Ind) +272 = 3,763 +8.1% of McB

Non Transferrable +502 = 524

Thomas Pringle Eliminated and fourth count proceeds
Final Count

Pearse Doherty (SF) + 1,709 16,897 +45.4% of TP
Brian Ó’Domhall (FF) + 433 8,069 +11.5% of TP
Barry O’Neill (FG) + 869 8,182 +23.1% of TP
As the combined vote of O’Neill +O’Domhnall was less than the O’Doherty total, O’Doherty was elected without reaching the Quota

On the final count, the combined FF+FG total was less than the Quota of 50%+1vote and less than the Sinn Fein total.(On First Count SF+Lab+LeftIndependent=60%)
Mc Brearty transfer to Fine Gael was 26% as against 43% to Sinn Fein. This was much less than a traditional Fg/Lab coalition transfer. The transfers from McBrearty and from Pringle to Fianna Fail were 8% and 12% respectively. This is less than half the Fianna Fail per centage of Poll on the first count. This indicates that Fianna Fail will suffer even more on crucial late counts than on first count in the next election. Labour and Left Independent transfers to Sinn Feinn worked well exceeding 40% in both cases.
The dog that didn’t bark in the night—-
Left Independent Thomas Pringle was not squeezed by Sinn Fein or by Labour.In the Spring-tide election Labour squeezed all other lefts. In the coming election the defection from Fianna Fail will be so great that left independents and Sinn Fein will be lifted as well as Labour. This augurs well for the prospects of the recently launched Unite Left Alliance in the next election. A Labour/Sinn Fein/Left majority may yet be possible on the numbers. The next election is likely to take place after the budget cuts are implemented. The defection from Fianna Fail will be all the greater.

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